We're just happy to have an NCAA Tournament, but know that everyone on the floor is not just happy to be here.  Hope athletics photo; David Hilbert, d3photography.com; Geanine Jamison, d3photography.com

By Gordon Mann
D3hoops.com

It’s so nice to have a national tournament again.

• Women's tournament bracket
• NCAA Tournament history
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It’s so nice for the best teams in NCAA Division III to have the opportunity to play down to one winner. After losing the 2020 NCAA Tournament midway through the event, and then waiting for what felt like the inevitable cancellation of the 2021 Tournament, it’s so nice to feel, with some certainty that we will crown a national champion in 2022.

It’s so nice because it’s been so long.

The last Division III national champion was Thomas More College. After winning the NCAA Division III title in March 2019, that program moved to NAIA, played for at national championship at that level, and then announced its move to NCAA Division II.

Our last defending national champion in Division III was Amherst, which won the 2018 championship during its 68-game winning streak. Since then, Hope had a 61-game winning streak start and end without even getting a chance to play for a national championship.

The NCAA selection committee has given us a national tournament through their bracketing. In some years, the NCAA Tournament has felt like a collection of regional tournaments that play down to a national final four or Elite 8, but don’t have much geographic crossover until then.

Not this year. The national Division III basketball map is now split into 10 regions. Here are the regions represented in each quadrant.

• Upper left: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10
• Lower left: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
• Upper right: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
• Lower right: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10

Each quadrant has at least one team from seven of the 10 regions and one quadrant has nine of 10.

While our Top 25 poll has nothing to do with which teams are selected or how they are seeded, each of the four quadrants is anchored around one of the top four teams in our poll. Unlike some years, where a team had a seemingly clear path to the national semifinals, there are a couple of matchups in each quadrant that give at least me pause before picking a winner.

That’s what I’m attempting to do here – to pick the team that will win each quadrant, along with the best first-round matchup in the quadrant, a surprise team that could win both games on the road this weekend, and a disappointment that may not live up to its seeding or ranking this weekend.

As usual, the only guarantee for these picks is that some will be very wrong. But it’s nice to have the chance to be wrong again.

Christopher Newport Quadrant (Upper Left)

Sondra Fan and No. 1 Christopher Newport will have to start their Tournament run on the road since the CNU men are hosting the first round of the men's Tournament this weekend. Photo by Christopher Newport University athletics

No. 1 Christopher Newport (24-0) vs. Mitchell (12-13); Mount St. Mary (23-3) at Johns Hopkins (22-4)
No. 13 Trinity, Texas (25-2) at No. 22 Hardin-Simmons (21-4); No. 6 Whitman (26-1) vs. Whittier (16-8)
Clarks Summit (23-4) at No. 11 Tufts (20-4); DeSales (21-3) vs. Cortland (21-5)
SUNYIT (20-6) at No. 8 Amherst (21-3); St. John Fisher (25-2) vs. Rhode Island College (23-5)

Best first round matchup: No. 13 Trinity (Texas) opened this season with three games against ranked opponents from the ASC. The Tigers went 1-2 over that stretch, finishing with a 65-63 loss at Hardin-Simmons. That game was nip-and-tuck the whole way with the Cowgirls winning on a beautifully designed play that ended with Paris Parmer hitting the game-winning three. Trinity hasn’t lost a game since then and Hardin-Simmons won its final nine games, including three in the ASC tournament. This is rematch, a showdown between ranked teams, and a matchup of conference champs, all in one.

Most likely to surprise: By definition, this is a team that can win both its game on the road this weekend. No. 1 Christopher Newport should do so, but the Captains are only in Baltimore because the men’s team is hosting the first weekend. It won’t be easy for Whitman to win its two games in Texas, but the rankings tell us it wouldn’t be a surprise. The real surprise could come in Medford, Mass, where Tufts is hosting. DeSales can’t overlook Cortland but, if the Bulldogs win on Friday, they can play with the Jumbos. They have two talented post players in Averi Jordan and Mikaela Reese. Their only losses came in the first three games of the season, and Reese did not play in two of them. Neither NESCAC team is invincible at home this season, and DeSales could pull the upset.

Most likely to disappoint: Whitman fans are probably disappointed that the Blues are playing in Texas this weekend, instead of hosting a pod in Washington. Normally an NWC team hosts a pod the first weekend, with a second NWC team, the SCIAC champ and someone else flying to the Pacific Northwest. This season the NWC didn’t produce a second Tournament team, and the Selection Committee couldn’t fly three teams to Walla Walla so the Blues could host. East coast fans may not watch a lot of NWC basketball, but the Blues are built to win a title. Kaylie McCracken and Korin Baker are another potent 1-2 low post punch. The Blues’ starting guards have a nice mix of scoring talents, and Karly Martin shoots 40 percent from three off the bench. I think Whitman wins this pod but falling in the first weekend after rampaging through the NWC schedule would be disappointing.

And the winner is: I’m very tempted to pick Whitman, which I think is the most complete team in this bracket. But the comparative scores favor Christopher Newport. Whitman lost to UC Santa Cruz over the holidays and CNU beat the Banana Slugs twice, including last weekend in California. So I’ll take Christopher Newport over Whitman in the Sweet 16, and then take the Captains to beat an Amherst team with a short rotation that could be worn down headed into that Elite 8 matchup. 

Simpson Quadrant (Lower Left)

Jenna Taylor and the Simpson Storm have the the No. 1 offense in Division III women's basketball. Photo by Simpson University athletics

Gustavus Adolphus (22-4) at No. 4 Simpson (25-1); UW-Oshkosh (19-6) vs. No. 18 Wis. Lutheran (23-1)
Morrisville St. (19-7) at No. 25 Gettysburg (24-3); No. 10 Baldwin Wallace (21-4) vs. Salisbury (20-6)
Ripon (18-9) at No. 12 UW-Whitewater (23-4); No. 15 DePauw (23-3) vs. Illinois Wesleyan (19-8)
Framingham State (22-3) at No. 16 Smith (23-2); Emmanuel (25-1) vs. Brooklyn (21-3)

Best first round matchup: Records suggest that No. 18 Wisconsin Lutheran should be favored over unranked UW-Oshkosh. Strength-of-schedule indices, like the Massey Ratings, suggest that UW-Oshkosh (8th) should be favored over Wisconsin Lutheran (56th). Prior seasons tell us that the Titans are tough to beat in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but this season tells us that Wisconsin Lutheran can beat good teams from tough conferences, like CCIW co-champs Millikin. Wisconsin Lutheran has not played a WIAC team since its 2016-17 season opener, but the last time the Warriors were in the Tournament, they beat another group of Titans from a power conference.

Most likely to surprise: No. 10 Baldwin Wallace got through the OAC conference grind and played Hope and Trine out of conference, so they are battle tested. The Yellow Jackets have made trips to Central Pennsylvania for prior tournaments, so the drive shouldn’t be a problem. Friday night's first round game is a matchup of All-American forwards (Lilly Edwards for BW, Kaylee Otlowski for Salisbury) and then the Yellow Jackets will likely face the ultra-stingy Gettysburg defense. But I like the Yellow Jackets to win both games away from northeast Ohio this weekend.

Most likely to disappoint: I feel bad about this one because I pick against DePauw in this spot a lot, like in 2018 when I wrote: 

DePauw lost to Wittenberg at home in the NCAC semifinals and then Wittenberg got blasted by NCAC three-seed Oberlin the next day. That loss dropped DePauw from a likely hosting position, maybe for both weekends, into the toughest game in the entire first round. The Tigers can still put last week's loss behind them with two wins this weekend, but anything short of that is going to be a relatively down way to finish the season.

It's not a perfect comparison. This time around Wittenberg beat DePauw in the NCAC semifinals, and then beat Ohio Wesleyan in the conference title game. But this feels like déjà vu, down to the difficult matchup with CCIW co-champs Illinois Wesleyan

And the winner is: Do you know which team leads the country in field goal percentage? Do you know which one leads the country in assists per game? How about the leader for three-point percentage? It’s not Christopher Newport or Hope, though both are highly ranked in most categories. It’s Simpson – the Storm have guards who can shoot (Kia Rasmussen, Anna Wanek) and guards who can distribute (Rasmussen, Cassie Nash). They have a super sophomore in Regan Freeland and a forward who averages 13 points per game in Cameron Kincaid. To top it off, Simpson has Jenna Taylor -- an All-American forward who leads the team in scoring, rebounding and shoots 45 percent from three. There's been a relatively quiet Storm brewing in Iowa, but I like Simpson to win this quadrant.

Hope Quadrant (Upper right)

Can anyone go into DeVos Fieldhouse and take a victory away from Olivia Voskuil and Hope during the NCAA Tournament? Photo by Hope College athletics

La Roche (20-5) at No. 2 Hope (26-1); Marietta (21-6) vs. Wittenberg (18-7)
North Central, Minn. (24-4) at No. 24 UW-Eau Claire; Millikin (21-6) vs. No. 23 Wartburg (21-5)
Washington & Lee (20-6) at No. 7 NYU (22-1); Roger Williams (25-2) vs. Bates (17-7)
New Jersey City (13-9) at No. 9 Scranton (25-2); SUNY New Paltz (20-6) vs. Babson (19-7)

Best first round matchup: No. 23 Wartburg is an NCAA Tournament veteran that has made the Big Dance every year since 2016. Millikin hasn’t been in the NCAA Tournament since the Big Blue won it 17 years ago. Both teams had heart-breaking losses in their conference tournament finals and both have players capable of putting up big numbers – Jaedon Murphy for Wartburg and CCIW Most Outstanding Player Elyce Knudsen for Millikin. Which player gets more help from her supporting cast could decide who advances to the second round.

Most likely to surprise: At the risk of being a party-pooper, I think all four hosts advance through the first weekend. But let’s go with a player who may surprise – Damaris Rodriguez is a dynamic guard for New Jersey City with the highest scoring average of anyone the Tournament at 21.1 points per game. Scranton has been in the NCAA Tournament 34 times, and New Jersey City is making its debut. If the Gothic Knights get off to a good start and Scranton becomes overly reliant on threes, Rodriguez is good enough to spark a major upset.

Most likely to disappoint: UW-Eau Claire has been very difficult to gauge this year. The Blugolds are the only team in the country with wins over two Top 5 teams (Simpson and Trine). The Blugolds also have four losses to teams not in the NCAA Tournament (Calvin, Bethany Lutheran and UW-Stout twice). Those are all good teams, but that's still a lot for a first weekend host. Again, I think UW-Eau Claire will win both games this weekend, but the Blugolds could go cold from outside and finish their roller-coaster season on a downer with a loss to Wartburg or Millikin this weekend.

And the winner is: Hope came into this season as the favorite to win the national title, and the Flying Dutch have the most favorable bracket to reach the national semifinals. UW-Eau Claire is one of very few teams I’ve seen this year that, if the Blugolds get hot from three, could ground the Flying Dutch. An Elite Eight matchup with Scranton or New York University would be fun, but it’s hard to pick anyone in this bracket to go into DeVos Fieldhouse and beat this senior-laden team. The one weakness that could trip the Flying Dutch in a tight game is free throw shooting. In the three games against Trine, Hope shot 53 percent, 66 percent, and 69 percent.

Transylvania Quadrant (Lower right)

Trine is one of 10 teams in the Tournament that holds opponents under 50 points a game. Photo by Trine College athletics

Washington & Jefferson (23-4) at No. 3 Transylvania (24-0); Southern Virginia (24-4) vs. Shenandoah (22-5)
East Texas Baptist (20-5) vs. Rhodes (23-2); No. 21 Mary Hardin-Baylor (22-4) vs. Webster (25-0)
Immaculata (18-8) at No. 5 Trine (24-3); No. 14 John Carroll (22-4) vs. Elizabethtown (20-5)
Catholic (20-5) at No. 19 Ithaca (24-3); No. 17 Messiah (23-3) vs. Springfield (22-4)

Best first round matchup: So many to choose from! Four catch my eye, and the one I expect to be the closest is East Texas Baptist at Rhodes. The Lynx are hosting, instead of Mary Hardin-Baylor, because the Crusader men have hosting privileges in the men’s Tournament. Like Trinity/Hardin-Simmons, this is a rematch from Mary Hardin-Baylor’s season-opening event. Rhodes won the first matchup 88-82 but that was before the Lynx lost All-American Kiera Downey. Ali Mayeux and Catherine Althoff have picked up the scoring slack, but Downey’s ball handling abilities will be missed against ETBU’s defense.

Most likely to surprise: Mary Hardin-Baylor winning its pod would not be a surprise (see above). Someone other than Ithaca winning that pod would not be a surprise either (see below). Transylvania is rolling right now, so that leaves the pod hosted by Trine. No. 14 John Carroll has two great players in Nicole Heffington and Olivia Nagy, each of whom have won the OAC Player of the Year before. Do the Blue Streaks have someone who can lock down Trine guard Tara Bieniewicz? The Thunder smushed OAC members Ohio Northern and No. 12 Baldwin Wallace this season. Would John Carroll fare better?

Most likely to disappoint: Ithaca was the top team in the Region 3 rankings, but the Bombers have a tough pod in Upstate New York. Catholic is a tough first round matchup. The Cardinals are not flashy but, when they are playing well, they get to the free throw line a lot and shoot 77 percent once they get there. If the Bombers win that one, then either Tournament veterans Messiah or Springfield await.  You could make a case for any of the four teams to win this pod, and that’s rare in the first weekend.

And the winner is: An Elite 8 battle between Transylvania and Trine would be Tr-iffic. Madison Kellione has played excellent against top-notch opponents. She had 33 points against John Carroll and 22 points at Tufts, including a ridiculous game-winning shot that would be an H for everyone else in HORSE. But I think Trine is a little deeper and, if the Thunder can win at Hope, they can win anywhere. I’ll take Trine over Transylvania in a thriller.

National semifinals

If my predictions are right (and they won't be), we'd have No. 1 Christopher Newport against No. 4 Simpson in one semifinal and a fourth matchup between No. 2 Hope and No. 5 Trine.

Christopher Newport's defense can be so overwhelming that you overlook the offensive excellence of Sondra Fan, Anaya Simmons and Natalie Terwilliger. They can score in a halfcourt offense and the Captains can win without turning a team over 20-plus times. They just did it in the Coast-to-Coast title game. But Simpson has more offensive fire power, more size in the back court and the Taylor-Kincaid combination neutralizes the Simmons-Terwillinger combo. So Simpson wins this fantasy semifinal matchup.

Hope and Trine have played three great games already, and it feels like they have to meet one time with season on the line. Trine won the second game in Hope and had a lead in the fourth quarter in the third. The Thunder could win this game, too, but it just feels like there's only one way for this season to end.

Hope went undefeated and was denied a chance to win a national championship by COVID in 2020. The Flying Dutch were No. 1 through last year's abbreviated season. We thought that Olivia Voskuil, Kenedy Schoonveld, Sydney Muller and others would graduate and leave Hope College as Division III women's basketball's ultimate "What if..." but those players came back for another season, thanks to the NCAA's blanket waiver.

The rest of the Division III basketball world is not a supporting character in Hope College: the Movie, but I'm a sucker for Hollywood-style stories in sports. 

It feels like this season -- as a culmination of the last three, really -- should end with Hope's seniors hoisting the Walnut-and-Bronze with tears streaming down their faces, Hope Athletic Director Tim Schoonveld embracing his daugher Kenedy as Tournament Most Outstanding Player, and Hans Zimmer music playing in the background. 

C'mon, it's right there in the name! Hope College! Hope is a feeling of expectation, and hope is what got us through the last Tournament-less seasons, right?

So, Hope wins the title, 84-82 over Simpson.